Tesla's Robotaxi with Unsupervised FSD launching in Austin this June, Musk claims

Here we go again. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, announced during the Q4 2024 earnings call that the company will launch an "unsupervised full self-driving" service in Austin, Texas, this June. This is in line with Musk's previous claims of launching unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas in the second quarter of 2025. But unlike the previous vague claims, the recent one provides specific details.

Tesla has been promising a fully autonomous customer fleet since 2016, but after nearly 10 years, Musk's latest statements suggest a different strategy. By specifying "as a paid service" and focusing on Austin rather than Texas as a whole, Tesla is hinting at a geofenced autonomous ride-hailing service with teleoperation capabilities. That's literally a copy of Waymo's approach, which has been offering autonomous rides in several cities for years.

Musk confirmed that Tesla will not offer unsupervised self-driving until its system surpasses human drivers in safety. Tesla aims to achieve the driven distance between necessary disengagements equivalent to human miles driven between collisions. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates that distance to be 670,000 miles. That's nearly three times the distance from Earth to the Moon. Currently, Tesla's system falls short of this goal, with data suggesting less than 500 miles between necessary disengagements. Yeah, that's a long way to go.

As usual, Musk remains very optimistic, predicting the launch of unsupervised FSD in California and other US regions by the end of the year. Given his history of overpromising on deadlines, it's wise to approach these announcements with caution. A bucket full of caution and a big bag of salt, just to stay on the safe side.

The concept of Tesla robotaxis is not new. Musk has been vocal about his vision for a future where people own multiple robotaxis and generate income through a ridesharing network. In 2019, he even predicted having over a million robotaxis on the road within a year, a goal that is yet to materialize. With the Cybercab going into production next year, there's a chance Tesla might get there by 2030.

On a side note - Waymo began offering fully autonomous rides to select users in Austin in late 2024 and plans to fully launch the service this year. This adds a bit of intrigue to Tesla's announcement, as it appears the two companies might be on a collision course in the race to deploy autonomous ride-hailing services. Let's hope that's just a figure of speech.

Tesla's plan to allow vehicle owners to add their cars to the robotaxi fleet next year is quite interesting, but the feasibility and safety of such a system raise many questions. With the autonomous driving landscape constantly evolving, it will be really fascinating to watch how Tesla's plans unfold in the coming months and years.

As skeptical as we might feel about it, Tesla's pursuit of unsupervised full self-driving technology is undoubtedly pushing the boundaries of autonomous driving. The company's goals are ambitious, as always, but the road to achieving them is filled with challenges. Tesla is moving at a snail's pace and claims every inch of progress is a giant step - but it will eventually get there. And when that happens, it'll be nothing short of revolutionary.

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